Monday 13 May 2013

Crisis? What crisis

So, in the last week the atmospheric concentration of CO2 reached 400ppm for the first time in human history, for the first time since the Pliocene Age, we are told. And the world didn't end.
This is probably 'a good thing'. The unfortunate thing is that this number had been (is?) given some significance by the scientific community. But the world kept turning, the sun came up and you could still go down the shops for a loaf of bread. 'Just more scientific scaremongering' Mr Average thought as he reversed his SUV off the driveway. It was almost as if something epochal had to happen as this sad marker was passed. Except that something epochal IS happening - just not in most people's backyards.

I won't go through the list of disastrous changes the world is undergoing - many of them irreversible, but perhaps the worst of all (and the most irreversible) is the rate of species extinction. Of the many statistics bandied about, let me give you just two: globally the abundance of vertebrate species has fallen by nearly 1/3 since 1970 (according to the 2010 Global Biodiversity report. Forget about extinctions - there are now a third fewer wild animals on the planet than 40 years ago (never mind about plants and invertebrates, which are also under massive pressure).

Thing is, it's not as if people don't care - many do. But it's just that as individuals we don't think we can make any difference - so let's eat, drink and be merry - and thank goodness that sea levels aren't 40 metres higher, as they were last time the planet was at the 400 mark. Politicians wring their hands - but very few are real visionaries, most focussed on policies that will get them re-elected in 5 years time, and whether growth is 0.5% per year, or a whole ONE per cent! Companies care about dividends for their shareholders over the next few years, 5 if you're lucky.  So I really question whether the democratic - capitalist model can deliver when we are faced with truly global, long-term challenges. When it does try and deliver a global treaty (such as the Kyoto Protocol), nations renege on the deal if it no longer suits them (Thank you USA, Canada and Australia). Anyway treaties that deal with some environmental problem or other are only tinkering at the edges of the real problem: population.

Eventually every species reaches the limits of its ecological space, and humans won't be any different - we've just been much better at increasing that space (to the disadvantage of every other species on the planet). The question is, what will the planet look like by the time we get to that point? Grey, covered in large desert areas, with very little wildlife? I don't want to be around to find out. The only country that has tried to address population growth is  a totalitarian one. But I suspect that unless the rest of the world wakes up to dealing with the 'P' word, then our problems will only worsen, and population crash, when it comes (as it does for all species) will be genuinely catastrophic. So in a way it's shame that the sun DIDN'T come up for one day (or something spectacular, but equally short term), the day we went through the 400 mark. Maybe the people would have demanded action from their leaders. But it was just another day, and the ship of fools sails merrily on. Place your bets on when we reach 450?

1 comment:

Letters to a raven said...

Sometimes it hurts too much to look directly at our world teetering on the edge, and feel so powerless. I suspect that's why so many of us look away. I guess we just have to keep on going, trying to stay aware, and doing what we can. But it doesn't feel enough.